Wallet signal backtest
Discoveries
No edge is claimed. These are experimental cohorts. A higher return in a small or immature sample is not evidence of predictive power.
Wallet-entry observations: 271 · matured outcome rows: 0 · pending outcome rows: 270 · unmeasured outcome rows: 0 · open signal windows: 6 · baseline size: 30
ONE_WALLET
- Signals
- 0
- Matured outcomes
- 0
- Pending outcomes
- 0
- 2x capture
- Not available
- 5x capture
- Not available
- 10x capture
- Not available
- 50x capture
- Not available
- 100x capture
- Not available
- Median maximum multiple
- Not available
- Mean maximum multiple
- Not available
- 7d median max
- Not available
- 7d median return
- Not available
- 30d median max
- Not available
- 30d median return
- Not available
- 7d median drawdown
- Not available
- Survival rate
- Not available
No edge is claimed. These are experimental cohorts. A higher return in a small or immature sample is not evidence of predictive power. Sample size 0 is below 30. Pending signals: 0. Matured outcome rows: 0.
TWO_WALLETS
- Signals
- 0
- Matured outcomes
- 0
- Pending outcomes
- 0
- 2x capture
- Not available
- 5x capture
- Not available
- 10x capture
- Not available
- 50x capture
- Not available
- 100x capture
- Not available
- Median maximum multiple
- Not available
- Mean maximum multiple
- Not available
- 7d median max
- Not available
- 7d median return
- Not available
- 30d median max
- Not available
- 30d median return
- Not available
- 7d median drawdown
- Not available
- Survival rate
- Not available
No edge is claimed. These are experimental cohorts. A higher return in a small or immature sample is not evidence of predictive power. Sample size 0 is below 30. Pending signals: 0. Matured outcome rows: 0.
THREE_PLUS_WALLETS
- Signals
- 0
- Matured outcomes
- 0
- Pending outcomes
- 0
- 2x capture
- Not available
- 5x capture
- Not available
- 10x capture
- Not available
- 50x capture
- Not available
- 100x capture
- Not available
- Median maximum multiple
- Not available
- Mean maximum multiple
- Not available
- 7d median max
- Not available
- 7d median return
- Not available
- 30d median max
- Not available
- 30d median return
- Not available
- 7d median drawdown
- Not available
- Survival rate
- Not available
No edge is claimed. These are experimental cohorts. A higher return in a small or immature sample is not evidence of predictive power. Sample size 0 is below 30. Pending signals: 0. Matured outcome rows: 0.
EMERGING_WALLET_ACTIVITY
- Signals
- 0
- Matured outcomes
- 0
- Pending outcomes
- 0
- 2x capture
- Not available
- 5x capture
- Not available
- 10x capture
- Not available
- 50x capture
- Not available
- 100x capture
- Not available
- Median maximum multiple
- Not available
- Mean maximum multiple
- Not available
- 7d median max
- Not available
- 7d median return
- Not available
- 30d median max
- Not available
- 30d median return
- Not available
- 7d median drawdown
- Not available
- Survival rate
- Not available
No edge is claimed. These are experimental cohorts. A higher return in a small or immature sample is not evidence of predictive power. Sample size 0 is below 30. Pending signals: 0. Matured outcome rows: 0.
QUALIFIED_WALLET_ACTIVITY
- Signals
- 0
- Matured outcomes
- 0
- Pending outcomes
- 0
- 2x capture
- Not available
- 5x capture
- Not available
- 10x capture
- Not available
- 50x capture
- Not available
- 100x capture
- Not available
- Median maximum multiple
- Not available
- Mean maximum multiple
- Not available
- 7d median max
- Not available
- 7d median return
- Not available
- 30d median max
- Not available
- 30d median return
- Not available
- 7d median drawdown
- Not available
- Survival rate
- Not available
No edge is claimed. These are experimental cohorts. A higher return in a small or immature sample is not evidence of predictive power. Sample size 0 is below 30. Pending signals: 0. Matured outcome rows: 0.
HIGH_CONFIDENCE_WALLET_ACTIVITY
- Signals
- 0
- Matured outcomes
- 0
- Pending outcomes
- 0
- 2x capture
- Not available
- 5x capture
- Not available
- 10x capture
- Not available
- 50x capture
- Not available
- 100x capture
- Not available
- Median maximum multiple
- Not available
- Mean maximum multiple
- Not available
- 7d median max
- Not available
- 7d median return
- Not available
- 30d median max
- Not available
- 30d median return
- Not available
- 7d median drawdown
- Not available
- Survival rate
- Not available
No edge is claimed. These are experimental cohorts. A higher return in a small or immature sample is not evidence of predictive power. Sample size 0 is below 30. Pending signals: 0. Matured outcome rows: 0.
RANDOM BASELINE
- Signals
- 30
- Matured outcomes
- 0
- Pending outcomes
- 270
- 2x capture
- Not available
- 5x capture
- Not available
- 10x capture
- Not available
- 50x capture
- Not available
- 100x capture
- Not available
- Median maximum multiple
- Not available
- Mean maximum multiple
- Not available
- 7d median max
- Not available
- 7d median return
- Not available
- 30d median max
- Not available
- 30d median return
- Not available
- 7d median drawdown
- Not available
- Survival rate
- Not available
No edge is claimed. These are experimental cohorts. A higher return in a small or immature sample is not evidence of predictive power.
Limitations
- No edge is claimed. Wallet tracking has not been shown to have predictive power.
- Count cohorts are a partition. Emerging, qualified, and high-confidence cohorts can overlap them.
- Wallets that share a cluster known at entry count as one wallet.
- A maximum multiple is the highest stored print inside that window divided by the entry print. It is not a continuous path and it is not realized profit.
- Failed, illiquid, and missing tokens stay in the cohort. Missing prints are marked unmeasured.
- Cohorts are written once when the signal window closes. Later trades do not rewrite them.
- Earliest stored wallet entry is 2026-09-26T11:59:47+00:00. Elapsed time is 0.54 days.
- These outcome windows cannot have matured for that earliest entry yet: 1d, 3d, 7d, 14d, 30d, 60d, 90d, 180d, 365d.
- 6 token signal windows are still open, so their independent-wallet cohorts are not frozen yet.
- No outcome window has a stored measurement yet, so capture rates are not available.
Baseline selection
- Uniform draw without replacement. Seed 1. Eligible tokens in the period: 45. Selected at 2026-09-27T01:28:30.453638+03:00 using market cap 3555083.39141053 and liquidity 291935.5395. Future performance was not an input.
- Uniform draw without replacement. Seed 1. Eligible tokens in the period: 45. Selected at 2026-09-27T01:39:28.153362+03:00 using market cap 460040.0 and liquidity 66865.11. Future performance was not an input.
- Uniform draw without replacement. Seed 1. Eligible tokens in the period: 45. Selected at 2026-09-27T01:39:28.153362+03:00 using market cap 6278552.0 and liquidity 580796.45. Future performance was not an input.
- Uniform draw without replacement. Seed 1. Eligible tokens in the period: 45. Selected at 2026-09-27T01:28:30.453638+03:00 using market cap 197358.951893002 and liquidity 48752.0834. Future performance was not an input.
- Uniform draw without replacement. Seed 1. Eligible tokens in the period: 45. Selected at 2026-09-27T01:28:30.453638+03:00 using market cap 23632620.3095728 and liquidity 919468.0203. Future performance was not an input.
- Uniform draw without replacement. Seed 1. Eligible tokens in the period: 45. Selected at 2026-09-27T01:28:30.453638+03:00 using market cap 5234280.0 and liquidity 332625.67. Future performance was not an input.
- Uniform draw without replacement. Seed 1. Eligible tokens in the period: 45. Selected at 2026-09-27T01:39:28.153362+03:00 using market cap 3111500.99292184 and liquidity 136660.2067. Future performance was not an input.
- Uniform draw without replacement. Seed 1. Eligible tokens in the period: 45. Selected at 2026-09-27T01:39:28.153362+03:00 using market cap 3609608.78228775 and liquidity 244405.3395. Future performance was not an input.
- Uniform draw without replacement. Seed 1. Eligible tokens in the period: 45. Selected at 2026-09-27T01:39:28.153362+03:00 using market cap 18796522.46 and liquidity 307125.9924. Future performance was not an input.
- Uniform draw without replacement. Seed 1. Eligible tokens in the period: 45. Selected at 2026-09-27T02:20:15.770941+03:00 using market cap 379164.0 and liquidity 70469.23. Future performance was not an input.
- Uniform draw without replacement. Seed 1. Eligible tokens in the period: 45. Selected at 2026-09-27T01:28:30.453638+03:00 using market cap 45873133.0 and liquidity 745309.09. Future performance was not an input.
- Uniform draw without replacement. Seed 1. Eligible tokens in the period: 45. Selected at 2026-09-27T01:28:30.453638+03:00 using market cap 3332746.0 and liquidity 564929.69. Future performance was not an input.
- Uniform draw without replacement. Seed 1. Eligible tokens in the period: 45. Selected at 2026-09-27T01:28:30.453638+03:00 using market cap 1233486.0 and liquidity 122304.21. Future performance was not an input.
- Uniform draw without replacement. Seed 1. Eligible tokens in the period: 45. Selected at 2026-09-27T02:20:15.770941+03:00 using market cap 125092.0 and liquidity 43808.12. Future performance was not an input.
- Uniform draw without replacement. Seed 1. Eligible tokens in the period: 45. Selected at 2026-09-27T01:28:30.453638+03:00 using market cap 28632594.137025 and liquidity 1288005.3559. Future performance was not an input.
- Uniform draw without replacement. Seed 1. Eligible tokens in the period: 45. Selected at 2026-09-27T01:28:30.453638+03:00 using market cap 110272.0 and liquidity 54914.59. Future performance was not an input.
- Uniform draw without replacement. Seed 1. Eligible tokens in the period: 45. Selected at 2026-09-27T01:28:30.453638+03:00 using market cap 5695754.65694567 and liquidity 22066.9446. Future performance was not an input.
- Uniform draw without replacement. Seed 1. Eligible tokens in the period: 45. Selected at 2026-09-27T01:39:28.153362+03:00 using market cap 570064.0 and liquidity 138927.82. Future performance was not an input.
- Uniform draw without replacement. Seed 1. Eligible tokens in the period: 45. Selected at 2026-09-27T01:39:28.153362+03:00 using market cap 1751946.0 and liquidity 60292.98. Future performance was not an input.
- Uniform draw without replacement. Seed 1. Eligible tokens in the period: 45. Selected at 2026-09-27T01:39:28.153362+03:00 using market cap 2301836.0 and liquidity 73647.73. Future performance was not an input.
- Uniform draw without replacement. Seed 1. Eligible tokens in the period: 45. Selected at 2026-09-27T01:39:28.153362+03:00 using market cap 298777.575477535 and liquidity 1566802.5332. Future performance was not an input.
- Uniform draw without replacement. Seed 1. Eligible tokens in the period: 45. Selected at 2026-09-27T01:28:30.453638+03:00 using market cap 17864447.0 and liquidity 594000.44. Future performance was not an input.
- Uniform draw without replacement. Seed 1. Eligible tokens in the period: 45. Selected at 2026-09-27T01:28:30.453638+03:00 using market cap 301004.0 and liquidity 83278.39. Future performance was not an input.
- Uniform draw without replacement. Seed 1. Eligible tokens in the period: 45. Selected at 2026-09-27T01:39:28.153362+03:00 using market cap 33883782.0 and liquidity 123853.13. Future performance was not an input.
- Uniform draw without replacement. Seed 1. Eligible tokens in the period: 45. Selected at 2026-09-27T01:39:28.153362+03:00 using market cap 4261821.0 and liquidity 528889.98. Future performance was not an input.
- Uniform draw without replacement. Seed 1. Eligible tokens in the period: 45. Selected at 2026-09-27T01:28:30.453638+03:00 using market cap 830639.0 and liquidity 117620.99. Future performance was not an input.
- Uniform draw without replacement. Seed 1. Eligible tokens in the period: 45. Selected at 2026-09-27T01:39:28.153362+03:00 using market cap 1452940.51465304 and liquidity 495856.8044. Future performance was not an input.
- Uniform draw without replacement. Seed 1. Eligible tokens in the period: 45. Selected at 2026-09-27T01:28:30.453638+03:00 using market cap 41653628.3762742 and liquidity 1361005.8159. Future performance was not an input.
- Uniform draw without replacement. Seed 1. Eligible tokens in the period: 45. Selected at 2026-09-27T01:28:30.453638+03:00 using market cap 10531264.1315212 and liquidity 871269.3578. Future performance was not an input.
- Uniform draw without replacement. Seed 1. Eligible tokens in the period: 45. Selected at 2026-09-27T01:28:30.453638+03:00 using market cap 332858.186505822 and liquidity 64247.1265. Future performance was not an input.