Top discoveries
$Surplus
Surplus Intelligence · Base
0xc52aedec3374422d7510e294cfaa90799595cba3
Overview
- Decision
- watch
- Opportunity
- 56/100
- Risk
- 46/100
- Survival
- 67/100
- Coverage
- 71%
- Model
- phase1.0
- Does not clear the discovery bar.
- opportunity 56.4 is below 60
- Enough independent evidence is stored to keep this on the watch list.
Why this is interesting
- Liquidity is $1,251,209 (at least $1M). Liquidity is necessary, not evidence of quality.
Why this might be wrong
- Mint authority or a mintable flag is enabled.
- Transfers can be paused.
- A majority of LP is unlocked on the provider report.
- Does not clear the discovery bar.
- opportunity 56.4 is below 60
- Enough independent evidence is stored to keep this on the watch list.
Market data
- Market cap
- $16.12M
- FDV
- $16.12M
- Liquidity
- $1.25M
- 24h volume
- $171.8K
- Pool age
- 163 days
- 24h price change
- -8%
Price change is displayed and is not an opportunity input. Pool age is the earliest observed pool, not a verified genesis date.
Acceleration
Change against this token's own earlier snapshots. This is not a prediction and not an opportunity score.
Measured 2026-10-26 04:33:35.840937+00:00
Market
declining · coverage 100%
- 15m liquidity · unknown · -2% · complete
- 1h liquidity · declining · -2% · complete
- 24h liquidity · declining · -5% · complete
- 3d liquidity · unknown · +32% · complete
- 6h liquidity · declining · -5% · complete
- 7d liquidity · unknown · +32% · complete
- 15m liquidity_to_mcap · unknown · +3% · complete
- 1h liquidity_to_mcap · accelerating · +3% · complete
On-chain
declining · coverage 100%
- 15m active_wallets · unknown · Not available · partial · zero observed
- 1h active_wallets · unknown · Not available · partial · zero observed
- 24h active_wallets · unknown · Not available · partial · zero observed
- 3d active_wallets · unknown · Not available · partial · zero observed
- 6h active_wallets · unknown · Not available · partial · zero observed
- 7d active_wallets · unknown · Not available · partial · zero observed
- 15m buy_count · unknown · Not available · partial · zero observed
- 1h buy_count · unknown · Not available · partial · zero observed
Social
flat · coverage 100%
- 1h copy_ratio · unknown · Not available · stale
- 24h copy_ratio · unknown · -50% · complete
- 6h copy_ratio · flat · +0% · complete
- 1h engagement · unknown · Not available · stale
- 24h engagement · unknown · -9% · complete
- 6h engagement · flat · -4% · complete
- 1h mentions · unknown · Not available · stale
- 24h mentions · unknown · +0% · complete
Narrative
flat · coverage 9%
- 6h artificial-intelligence · flat · +0% · complete
- 6h base-ecosystem · flat · -28% · complete
- 6h bankr-ecosystem · flat · +0% · complete
No early acceleration event at this measurement.
Social momentum
Score 56/100 · confidence 0.55
- Recent-search page contains 36 posts. This is one page, not the full history.
- Authors on this page are somewhat distributed.
- Unique authors changed -6% versus the prior stored snapshot.
- Mentions changed -3% versus the prior stored snapshot.
- Sentiment is not available. Mention count alone is not treated as community quality.
Holder concentration
- Raw top-list share
- +28%
- Economic share
- +28%
Economic share is the listed wallets and unlabeled contracts divided by supply that is not labeled as burn, pool, bridge, staking, or exchange. This uses the provider's top-holder list, not a full census. Infrastructure share of total supply is 0%.
Data confidence
- market
- 100%
- onchain
- 100%
- social
- 80%
- development
- 0%
- narrative
- 60%
- risk
- 80%
- overall
- 70%
Data confidence is separate from the opportunity coverage gate.
On-chain
- Recent volume is close to the 24h pace.
- 24h volume changed -22% versus the prior stored snapshot.
- Liquidity changed -4% versus the prior stored snapshot.
- Holder count changed 0% versus the prior stored snapshot.
Smart money
- Signal
- Not available
- Qualified wallets
- 0
- High-confidence wallets
- 0
- Independent entities
- 0
- Independence
- Not available
- Accumulating
- 0
- Historical early-entry quality
- Not available
- Entry range fit
- Not available
- Coordination risk
- Not available
- Data confidence
- Not available
Why smart money matters
6 holder wallets were observed from this run. None have a measured historical track record, so none are qualified. A large balance is not smart money.
Smart money is evidence. It does not clear a honeypot, a malicious contract, extreme concentration, thin liquidity, or unsafe tokenomics.
Historical smart-money evidence: Not available. No free chart has been stored for this token yet.
Wallet tracking
- Tracked since
- 2026-09-26 23:59:58.342282+00:00
- Candidates
- 114
- Emerging
- 9
- Qualified
- 0
- High-confidence
- 0
- Independent entities
- 122
- Coordination risk
- MEDIUM
Emerging wallet activity detected. 0x00…0e61 0x54…bc75 0x3b…caaf 0x91…1a48 0xbd…15b2
Emerging wallet activity is not a smart-money alert and does not mean these wallets are qualified.
Tracking starts when a wallet is seen buying a watch, discovery, or strong research token. A candidate is not smart money.
Development
Not available. A missing GitHub link is not treated as proof that nobody is building.
Narrative
- Narrative label FLAT_24H. Median sourced category market-cap change is -1.7% over 24h.
- A single 24h category move is not labeled HIGH and is not a multi-signal narrative score.
- The token name was not used to invent a category.
Tokenomics
- FDV is 1.0x circulating market cap.
- Reported sell tax is 0. This is a provider flag, not an audit.
Risk
- Mint authority or a mintable flag is enabled.
- Transfers can be paused.
- A majority of LP is unlocked on the provider report.
Catalysts
- Sustained increases in holders, liquidity, and volume across multiple snapshots.
- Verification that mint authority and pause controls are removed or credibly constrained.
- Transparent LP locking or equivalent liquidity protections covering a meaningful period.
- Independent audit confirming transfer behavior, tax behavior, and administrative permissions.
- Evidence of real product usage, integrations, revenue, or growing on-chain activity.
- Improved social evidence showing persistent, distributed, and positive engagement rather than one-page mention volume.
Historical analogues
Not available. Analogues require stored candidates at least 30 days older, with enough overlapping features.
10x / 100x / 1000x market-cap scenarios
- 10x market cap
- $161.18M
- 100x market cap
- $1.61B
- 1000x market cap
- $16.12B
These are arithmetic market-cap scenarios, not predictions and not probabilities.
- No historical sector maximum is stored in the local corpus, so precedent is not available. Absence of a stored precedent is not evidence against the scenario.
- No historical sector maximum is stored in the local corpus, so precedent is not available. Absence of a stored precedent is not evidence against the scenario.
- No historical sector maximum is stored in the local corpus, so precedent is not available. Absence of a stored precedent is not evidence against the scenario.
AI research rationale
Surplus is a moderately interesting discovery candidate, but not a validated investment thesis. The token has meaningful observed liquidity, roughly five months of observed trading, and a heuristic survival score of 70.0, yet mint capability, pausable transfers, majority-unlocked LP, low economic holder share, and weakening 24-hour volume create material downside and structural risks. The opportunity score of 60.1 should be treated as a screening output rather than evidence of expected returns.
Confidence: medium. The packet contains several concrete market, liquidity, age, contract-risk, and activity observations, with full survival inputs reported. Confidence is limited because the signals are provider-derived, the age is not verified genesis age, social and smart-money data are incomplete, no fundamental project information is supplied, and the available evidence includes important unresolved contract and liquidity risks.
Why it is interesting
The asset has approximately $17.7 million market capitalization and FDV, $1.31 million liquidity, and 161.6 days of observed pool age. Recent one-hour volume is above its 24-hour hourly pace, holder count has increased 14% versus the prior snapshot, and the reported sell tax is zero. These are potentially useful discovery signals, but they do not establish token quality, sustainable demand, or investability.
Bull case
Surplus may have achieved some market persistence, with 161.6 days of observed trading and over $1 million in liquidity. The negative honeypot check, reported zero sell tax, near-1.0x FDV-to-circulating-market-cap relationship, and recent increases in holder count and liquidity could support continued trading activity. The ELEVATED_24H narrative label and category median market-cap change of 14.1% may provide short-term attention, although this is not a full narrative score.
Bear case
The strongest concerns are contract and liquidity-control risks: mint capability is enabled, transfers can be paused, and a majority of LP is unlocked. Economic holder share is only 28%, while 24-hour volume declined 31% versus the prior snapshot. The observed age is not a verified genesis date, the honeypot result is not a guarantee, and the zero-tax flag is not an audit. Social momentum cannot be assessed because there is only one recent-search page, no second snapshot, and no sentiment data.
What would invalidate it
The discovery thesis would be invalidated by evidence of unauthorized or material supply expansion, inability to sell or transfer under normal conditions, withdrawal of substantial liquidity, highly concentrated control by insiders or deployers, fabricated or non-reproducible trading activity, or sustained deterioration in liquidity, volume, and holder metrics. It would also be weakened materially if the reported honeypot and zero-tax indicators fail independent testing.
Missing information
- Verified contract audit and a detailed assessment of mint, pause, ownership, and administrative controls.
- Current and historical token-supply changes, including whether mint authority has been exercised.
- LP-provider identity, exact unlock schedule, and evidence regarding who controls the unlocked liquidity.
- Distribution of holders, concentration among top wallets, and exchangeability of the reported economic holder share.
- Verified team, product, utility, roadmap, treasury, revenue, and adoption information.
- Longer time-series data for volume, liquidity, holders, price, and market-cap behavior.
- A second social snapshot, mention acceleration, sentiment, and broader community-quality measures.
- Smart-money activity or independently validated wallet-quality analysis.
- Stored historical analogue outcomes with later market caps.
- Independent confirmation of tax behavior and sellability across relevant trading venues.
Model gpt-5.6-luna. The model did not choose the scores.
Backtest context
Forward returns at 7, 30, 90, 180, and 365 days are recorded after those horizons elapse. Until the sample is large enough, no signal is described as predictive.
Source links