Top discoveries

$ASTEROID

Asteroid Shiba · Ethereum

0xf280b16ef293d8e534e370794ef26bf312694126

Overview

Decision
watch
Opportunity
56/100
Risk
0/100
Survival
83/100
Coverage
71%
Model
phase1.0

Why this is interesting

Why this might be wrong

Market data

Market cap
$3.37M
FDV
$3.37M
Liquidity
$796.3K
24h volume
$41.7K
Pool age
775 days
24h price change
-4%

Price change is displayed and is not an opportunity input. Pool age is the earliest observed pool, not a verified genesis date.

Acceleration

Change against this token's own earlier snapshots. This is not a prediction and not an opportunity score.

Measured 2026-10-26 05:37:53.023332+00:00

Market

flat · coverage 100%

On-chain

flat · coverage 100%

Social

unknown · coverage 100%

Narrative

flat · coverage 10%

No early acceleration event at this measurement.

Social momentum

Score 56/100 · confidence 0.55

Holder concentration

Raw top-list share
+25%
Economic share
+15%

Economic share is the listed wallets and unlabeled contracts divided by supply that is not labeled as burn, pool, bridge, staking, or exchange. This uses the provider's top-holder list, not a full census. Infrastructure share of total supply is 12%.

Data confidence

market
100%
onchain
100%
social
80%
development
0%
narrative
60%
risk
80%
overall
70%

Data confidence is separate from the opportunity coverage gate.

On-chain

Smart money

Signal
Not available
Qualified wallets
0
High-confidence wallets
0
Independent entities
0
Independence
Not available
Accumulating
0
Historical early-entry quality
Not available
Entry range fit
Not available
Coordination risk
Not available
Data confidence
Not available

Why smart money matters

5 holder wallets were observed from this run. None have a measured historical track record, so none are qualified. A large balance is not smart money.

Smart money is evidence. It does not clear a honeypot, a malicious contract, extreme concentration, thin liquidity, or unsafe tokenomics.

Historical smart-money evidence: Not available. No free chart has been stored for this token yet.

Wallet tracking

Tracked since
2026-09-27 02:11:05.476089+00:00
Candidates
28
Emerging
0
Qualified
0
High-confidence
0
Independent entities
28
Coordination risk
LOW

Tracking starts when a wallet is seen buying a watch, discovery, or strong research token. A candidate is not smart money.

Development

Not available. A missing GitHub link is not treated as proof that nobody is building.

Narrative

Tokenomics

Risk

Catalysts

Historical analogues

Not available. Analogues require stored candidates at least 30 days older, with enough overlapping features.

10x / 100x / 1000x market-cap scenarios

10x market cap
$33.66M
100x market cap
$336.58M
1000x market cap
$3.37B

These are arithmetic market-cap scenarios, not predictions and not probabilities.

AI research rationale

ASTEROID is a speculative discovery candidate, not a validated investment opportunity. Its strongest observable positives are approximately $818,854 of liquidity, a 1.0x FDV-to-market-cap relationship, and 774.6 days of observed trading age. However, the evidence also shows 24-hour volume down 52%, liquidity down 20%, only 15% economic holder share, and no available smart-money or verified fundamental information. The deterministic opportunity score of 66.4 and survival score of 83.0 should be treated as screening outputs rather than forecasts.

Confidence: medium. The packet contains several market-structure observations and reports 82.8% coverage, but critical information about contract security, ownership concentration, liquidity control, fundamentals, and historical outcomes is absent. The deterministic scores are therefore useful for screening but insufficient for a high-confidence investment conclusion.

Why it is interesting

The token has meaningful reported liquidity relative to its approximately $3.5 million market capitalization, with liquidity equal to 23.4% of market cap. It also has a long observed pool history and no detected honeypot issue on the sources that ran. These characteristics may justify further diligence, but they do not establish sustainable demand, token quality, or upside.

Bull case

ASTEROID could be more resilient than a newly launched token because the observed pool has existed for 774.6 days, liquidity is reported at $818,854, FDV is approximately equal to circulating market cap, and the reported sell tax is zero. Recent last-hour volume is 2.4x the 24-hour hourly pace, which could indicate renewed activity. The positive interpretation is weakened by declining 24-hour volume and liquidity, and by the absence of verified information about the project or its holders.

Bear case

The token may be experiencing deteriorating participation or liquidity: 24-hour volume is down 52% versus the prior snapshot and liquidity is down 20%. Economic holder share is only 15%, while holder count is unchanged, which does not demonstrate expanding ownership or demand. The observed age is not a verified genesis date, the honeypot result is not a guarantee, and there is no smart-money data or historical analogue outcome supplied. The zero risk score means no material flag fired on available inputs, not that the asset is low risk.

What would invalidate it

The constructive case would be invalidated by evidence of contract backdoors or transfer restrictions, materially inaccessible or removable liquidity, concentrated insider control, fabricated or unreliable market data, persistent further declines in volume and liquidity, or evidence that the observed pool history does not represent continuous genuine trading.

Missing information

Model gpt-5.6-luna. The model did not choose the scores.

Backtest context

Forward returns at 7, 30, 90, 180, and 365 days are recorded after those horizons elapse. Until the sample is large enough, no signal is described as predictive.

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